That's right -- today was Opening Day.
Well, sort of. It was Opening Day in the Grapefruit and Cactus leagues...and that's good enough for me.
There were four games played earlier today -- and two of them were televised. Here are some of the highlights...straight from my Tivo to your eyes:
* Nine minutes -- that's how long it took for "pitcher's fielding practice" to be mentioned during the first broadcast of a Tigers game this spring. Before Detroit's game against the Mets had even begun, Mets' play-by-play man Gary Cohen made a joke about the Detroit staff's post-season fielding woes on the SportsNet New York broadcast. So much for the American League champs getting any respect...
* Mets starter Oliver Perez didn't look good at all against a less-than-stellar Detroit lineup. Perez had trouble locating his pitches and left too many balls in the middle of the plate. The result? Five hits, one walk and four runs -- all earned -- in two innings of work.
* Detroit's top pitching prospect, 6'6" left-hander Andrew Miller showed off a good, high fastball in his two innings of work. Miller didn't have great control, but he posted two scoreless innings with four strikeouts, including a great 0-2 slider to get Paul LoDuca looking in the fourth.
* Another top Detroit prospect -- outfielder Cameron Maybin -- seemed overmatched by Aaron Heilman in the eighth innings; he took a 2-2 fastball right down the middle of the plate for strike three.
* In Fort Myers tonight, the Twins and Red Sox opened their exhibition seasons. And check out the six-and-seven hitters in the Twins' lineup: Designated hitter Matthey LeCroy and first baseman Ken Harvey. (Yep, that Ken Harvey.) What's going on with the Twins these days? Were Sam Horn and Bob Hamelin not available?
* Twins pitcher Matt Garza -- the team's number one prospect, according to Baseball America, had his fastball registering at 94-95 mph on the NESN on-screen radar gun. Garza shattered Kevin Youkilis's bat on a well-placed 95 mph fastabll in the first to retire "The Greek God of Walks" on a bouncer to short. In the second, Garza made one mistake -- he hung a curveball to Jason Varitek to lead off the inning, but Varitek failed to take advantage, lining out to right. During the regular season, Garza likely wouldn't have been so fortunate. All in all, though, Garza pitched two very strong innings without allowing a baserunner.
* Red Sox starter Curt Schilling certainly looks heavier than ever, but his weight does not appear to be out of control. He'll likely be back to -- or very near -- his normal playing weight by the time the regular season rolls around.
* Potential closer Joel Piniero pitched the third inning, allowing two hits and an unearned run. He appears to be throwing more from the side than he has in the past. Brendan Donnelly pitched the fourth for Boston, and he appeared to be in mid-season form. His herky-jerky delivery had the Twins' hitters off-balance, and Donnelly turned in a very easy inning of work.
* That unearned run allowed by Piniero was the result of a Julio Lugo throwing error, by the way. Here we go again...
* Not that we should be surprised by this, but Joe Mauer is pretty good. He hit a three-run homer in the fifth inning to tie the game at 4-4 (and, oddly, the game would end in a 4-4 tie after 10 innings.) Anyway, Mauer waited on a slider from Julian Tavarez and sent it the opposite way over the left-field wall for a home run.
There's a full slate of spring training games tomorrow -- and three of them (Cards-Mets, Twins-Yankees and White Sox-Rockies) are scheduled to be televised. I'll post again tomorrow to let you know what happened in those games.
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Five Pitchers Who Will Surprise in 2007
Now that the exhibition schedule is about to begin, draft prep kicks into high gear for fantasy owners everywhere.
Years ago, fantasy (or rotisserie) drafts were much easier. If you did your homework, you'd have a significant advantage over the other owners in your league. And it was easy to come away from Draft Day with a couple of legitimate "sleepers."
But those days are gone. Now most leagues are loaded with laptop-toting owners who have instant access to expert opinions and analysis. So even if you do put in the work ahead of the draft, you're likely just staying even with the competition...not getting ahead.
And forget about sleepers -- those don't exist anymore. Everyone knows the names of all the best prospects...and they have cheat sheets loaded with lists of darkhorse candidates to pick up saves later in the season.
Obviously, the game has changed. But the search for Draft Day bargains goes on.
So today I'll give you a few. No -- these aren't sleepers...trust me, you've heard of all of these guys before.
Instead, your best bet these days is to look for good "scrap heap" players who have the potential to deliver surprisingly good numbers. But at the same time, these players have to have been bad enough in the recent past to scare everyone else away...and the price ($1 or $2 in auction leagues) has to be right, so you can easily unload one of these players who doesn't pan out.
Today we'll focus on pitchers -- here's a quick list of seven "scrap heap" pitchers who will surprise you in 2007...
1. Tim Wakefield, Boston -- Wakefield has so many things working against him. First, he's now 40 years old (he'll turn 41 in August) and he battled injuries during a disappointing 2006 season. Most owners will be scared away by Wakefield's 4.63 ERA and 1.33 ratio in 2006...but take a look at Wakefield's splits from last season. Before the All-Star break, Wakefield was 7-8 with a 4.05 ERA...and opponents hit .233 against the knuckleballer. But after the break -- when Wakefield was pitching in pain -- he went 0-3 with a 7.40 ERA...and opponents hit .314 against him. It's not a sure thing that Wakefield will rebound in 2007 (but then again, we are talking about "scrap heap" pitchers, aren't we?) but given his history -- he won 16 games just two years ago -- and the strong Red Sox offense, a 15-win season is not out of the question.
2. Zack Greinke, Kansas City -- Let's be clear about this: I don't see any scenario where Zack Greinke wins 15 games in 2007. But I can envision a scenario where the talented right-hander overcomes last year's struggles to rejoin the Kansas City rotation and get his career back on track. In order to take that first step, it appears Greinke will need to beat out Brian Bannister this spring. A look at Greinke's Double-A numbers for 2006 show that he actually pitched well, but fell victim to some bad luck. There's no question he'll be available at a very low price this year -- and remember, he's still only 23 years old. Throwing that $1 or $2 at Greinke late in the draft could prove to be a steal; and if he disappears again, well, that middle reliever you'd have gotten will still be there on the waiver wire.
3. Jaret Wright, Baltimore -- Was 2004 really that long ago? Because it was in 2004 that Jaret Wright posted a 15-8 record and a 3.28 ERA while pitching for Leo Mazzone and the Atlanta Braves. Wright heads to Baltimore this season for a reunion with Mazzone, and it will be interesting to see if the two of them can get Wright straightened out. If you're looking for a positive in Wright's 2006 numbers, he was 5-5 with a 4.99 ERA in 70 1/3 innings of work at Yankee Stadium. But away from the Bronx, Wright was 6-2 with a 3.99 ERA in 70 innings pitched. The same thing happened in 2005, as well: Wright was 2-3 with a 7.86 ERA in seven Yankee Stadium starts, but 3-2 with a 3.99 ERA on the road. Is it possible that leaving Yankee Stadium and reuniting with Mazzone will mean another 15-win, sub-4.00 ERA season? It's certainly possible...
4. Jon Lieber, Philadelphia -- Dear Jon...I don't know any easy way to say this, but let's face it -- this just isn't working out. Don't worry, though, it's not you...it's us. You see, we should have never brought a flyball pitcher like you to Philadelphia to pitch in this bandbox of a ballpark. I really wish it hadn't come to this, since you've still got a lot going for you -- and I know you'll make some team happy later this season in your free agent year. Best of luck. Sincerely, The Philadelphia Phillies. Seriously...I have no idea where Lieber will wind up before the season is over, but it seems likely he'll be traded somewhere. I say it's worth a small risk to stash him away at the bottom of your roster and see what happens. The upside, as we all know, is something approaching a 20-win season.
5. Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs -- I don't know if Wood qualifies as a guy you'd be able to get for $1, especially if he looks good in spring training. I realize I may be the only person in the world who feels this way -- and I have absolutely zero evidence to back this up -- but I think Wood gets 30 saves this season and launches a second career as the Cubs' closer. Of course, I could be wrong and he could spend the entire season on the disabled list. But if he stays away from those slippery hot tubs, he just might get back on track.
Years ago, fantasy (or rotisserie) drafts were much easier. If you did your homework, you'd have a significant advantage over the other owners in your league. And it was easy to come away from Draft Day with a couple of legitimate "sleepers."
But those days are gone. Now most leagues are loaded with laptop-toting owners who have instant access to expert opinions and analysis. So even if you do put in the work ahead of the draft, you're likely just staying even with the competition...not getting ahead.
And forget about sleepers -- those don't exist anymore. Everyone knows the names of all the best prospects...and they have cheat sheets loaded with lists of darkhorse candidates to pick up saves later in the season.
Obviously, the game has changed. But the search for Draft Day bargains goes on.
So today I'll give you a few. No -- these aren't sleepers...trust me, you've heard of all of these guys before.
Instead, your best bet these days is to look for good "scrap heap" players who have the potential to deliver surprisingly good numbers. But at the same time, these players have to have been bad enough in the recent past to scare everyone else away...and the price ($1 or $2 in auction leagues) has to be right, so you can easily unload one of these players who doesn't pan out.
Today we'll focus on pitchers -- here's a quick list of seven "scrap heap" pitchers who will surprise you in 2007...
1. Tim Wakefield, Boston -- Wakefield has so many things working against him. First, he's now 40 years old (he'll turn 41 in August) and he battled injuries during a disappointing 2006 season. Most owners will be scared away by Wakefield's 4.63 ERA and 1.33 ratio in 2006...but take a look at Wakefield's splits from last season. Before the All-Star break, Wakefield was 7-8 with a 4.05 ERA...and opponents hit .233 against the knuckleballer. But after the break -- when Wakefield was pitching in pain -- he went 0-3 with a 7.40 ERA...and opponents hit .314 against him. It's not a sure thing that Wakefield will rebound in 2007 (but then again, we are talking about "scrap heap" pitchers, aren't we?) but given his history -- he won 16 games just two years ago -- and the strong Red Sox offense, a 15-win season is not out of the question.
2. Zack Greinke, Kansas City -- Let's be clear about this: I don't see any scenario where Zack Greinke wins 15 games in 2007. But I can envision a scenario where the talented right-hander overcomes last year's struggles to rejoin the Kansas City rotation and get his career back on track. In order to take that first step, it appears Greinke will need to beat out Brian Bannister this spring. A look at Greinke's Double-A numbers for 2006 show that he actually pitched well, but fell victim to some bad luck. There's no question he'll be available at a very low price this year -- and remember, he's still only 23 years old. Throwing that $1 or $2 at Greinke late in the draft could prove to be a steal; and if he disappears again, well, that middle reliever you'd have gotten will still be there on the waiver wire.
3. Jaret Wright, Baltimore -- Was 2004 really that long ago? Because it was in 2004 that Jaret Wright posted a 15-8 record and a 3.28 ERA while pitching for Leo Mazzone and the Atlanta Braves. Wright heads to Baltimore this season for a reunion with Mazzone, and it will be interesting to see if the two of them can get Wright straightened out. If you're looking for a positive in Wright's 2006 numbers, he was 5-5 with a 4.99 ERA in 70 1/3 innings of work at Yankee Stadium. But away from the Bronx, Wright was 6-2 with a 3.99 ERA in 70 innings pitched. The same thing happened in 2005, as well: Wright was 2-3 with a 7.86 ERA in seven Yankee Stadium starts, but 3-2 with a 3.99 ERA on the road. Is it possible that leaving Yankee Stadium and reuniting with Mazzone will mean another 15-win, sub-4.00 ERA season? It's certainly possible...
4. Jon Lieber, Philadelphia -- Dear Jon...I don't know any easy way to say this, but let's face it -- this just isn't working out. Don't worry, though, it's not you...it's us. You see, we should have never brought a flyball pitcher like you to Philadelphia to pitch in this bandbox of a ballpark. I really wish it hadn't come to this, since you've still got a lot going for you -- and I know you'll make some team happy later this season in your free agent year. Best of luck. Sincerely, The Philadelphia Phillies. Seriously...I have no idea where Lieber will wind up before the season is over, but it seems likely he'll be traded somewhere. I say it's worth a small risk to stash him away at the bottom of your roster and see what happens. The upside, as we all know, is something approaching a 20-win season.
5. Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs -- I don't know if Wood qualifies as a guy you'd be able to get for $1, especially if he looks good in spring training. I realize I may be the only person in the world who feels this way -- and I have absolutely zero evidence to back this up -- but I think Wood gets 30 saves this season and launches a second career as the Cubs' closer. Of course, I could be wrong and he could spend the entire season on the disabled list. But if he stays away from those slippery hot tubs, he just might get back on track.
Monday, February 26, 2007
What We've Learned So Far
Position players have now been in spring camp for roughly a week...and we're on the verge of the first pitches being thrown in the 2007 exhibition schedule.
So with the games set to begin in just a couple of days, what have we learned about the 2007 MLB season since camps have opened?
* First, we've learned that it's not easy to pitch with a torn rotator cuff...even if the tear is "just" a partial one. Angels' ace Bartolo Colon is now likely to miss the season opener with his injury, and Baltimore's Kris Benson looks like a lost cause for the entire season. Colon presents an intriguing draft day decision for fantasy owners. You could wind up getting a staff ace at a deep discount, or you could end up with a great big bag of nothing.
* Speaking of nothing, that Manny Ramirez soap opera sure was fun, wasn't it? While I'm not a Red Sox fan, I must admit even I have grown tired of his act. Although it was interesting that a major league player attempted to pull a "Johnny Fairplay" in an attempt to go to a car auction.
* We've learned that the Philadelphia Phillies use Google to look for talent. (OK, sort of...)
* Perhaps the most interesting storyline of spring training so far comes out of Fort Myers, as the investigation into Daisuke Matsuzaka's "gyroball" continues. We've reached the point where the suspense is killing me. Sure, I realize it's probably nothing...but the potential impact of a new pitch unleashed on big league hitters is difficult to ignore.
But what we haven't learned yet is whether or not baseball fans will be able to watch out-of-market games this season on any outlet other than Directv. It's absolutely amazing to me that the season is now nearly a month away and there has been no announcement regarding the Extra Innings package for 2007.
I consider myself lucky, as I'm a Directv customer. But I can understand the frustration of those fans who are wondering if they'll be left in the dark -- or scrambling to activate Directv service -- when the season rolls around.
And as the exhibition season kicks off on Wednesday, let's keep a close eye on Directv (and others) to see if preseason broadcasts are blacked out. In the past few years, most games have been available with no blackout (via the sports package) but one has to wonder if that policy will change going forward.
Here's a simple idea for Bud Selig: As a die-hard baseball fan, Bud, I am prepared to pay you roughly $200 for the privelege of watching out-of-market games on TV. (And, please, don't tell me about MLB.TV...that's a separate issue.) So, Bud, if you wouldn't mind just telling me where to send the check, that would be great. Oh, and while you're at it...how about stepping up to the plate like your NBA and NHL counterparts and making all of the games available? Your blackout policies are absolutely archaic...and the fact that you continue to insist that out-of-market broadcasts of classic games remain blacked out in the off-season is laughable.
The fans are ready to hand over the money, Mr. Commissioner. All we're asking for is a little common sense in return.
So with the games set to begin in just a couple of days, what have we learned about the 2007 MLB season since camps have opened?
* First, we've learned that it's not easy to pitch with a torn rotator cuff...even if the tear is "just" a partial one. Angels' ace Bartolo Colon is now likely to miss the season opener with his injury, and Baltimore's Kris Benson looks like a lost cause for the entire season. Colon presents an intriguing draft day decision for fantasy owners. You could wind up getting a staff ace at a deep discount, or you could end up with a great big bag of nothing.
* Speaking of nothing, that Manny Ramirez soap opera sure was fun, wasn't it? While I'm not a Red Sox fan, I must admit even I have grown tired of his act. Although it was interesting that a major league player attempted to pull a "Johnny Fairplay" in an attempt to go to a car auction.
* We've learned that the Philadelphia Phillies use Google to look for talent. (OK, sort of...)
* Perhaps the most interesting storyline of spring training so far comes out of Fort Myers, as the investigation into Daisuke Matsuzaka's "gyroball" continues. We've reached the point where the suspense is killing me. Sure, I realize it's probably nothing...but the potential impact of a new pitch unleashed on big league hitters is difficult to ignore.
But what we haven't learned yet is whether or not baseball fans will be able to watch out-of-market games this season on any outlet other than Directv. It's absolutely amazing to me that the season is now nearly a month away and there has been no announcement regarding the Extra Innings package for 2007.
I consider myself lucky, as I'm a Directv customer. But I can understand the frustration of those fans who are wondering if they'll be left in the dark -- or scrambling to activate Directv service -- when the season rolls around.
And as the exhibition season kicks off on Wednesday, let's keep a close eye on Directv (and others) to see if preseason broadcasts are blacked out. In the past few years, most games have been available with no blackout (via the sports package) but one has to wonder if that policy will change going forward.
Here's a simple idea for Bud Selig: As a die-hard baseball fan, Bud, I am prepared to pay you roughly $200 for the privelege of watching out-of-market games on TV. (And, please, don't tell me about MLB.TV...that's a separate issue.) So, Bud, if you wouldn't mind just telling me where to send the check, that would be great. Oh, and while you're at it...how about stepping up to the plate like your NBA and NHL counterparts and making all of the games available? Your blackout policies are absolutely archaic...and the fact that you continue to insist that out-of-market broadcasts of classic games remain blacked out in the off-season is laughable.
The fans are ready to hand over the money, Mr. Commissioner. All we're asking for is a little common sense in return.
Sunday, February 25, 2007
What is Your Draft Prep Style?
So here we are at what everyone would have you believe is that “magical” time of year. A time when every club still has World Series dreams. A time when every player has come up with a new stance – or a change in his mechanics – that will lead to great improvement in the season ahead.
The blue skies…the green grass…the smell of hot dogs and the sound of vendors hawking beer and scorecards.
Spring training: the most relaxing and enjoyable time of any baseball season.
At least that’s what the television talking heads and the newspaper beat writers would have everyone believe.
But you and I both know that nothing could be further from the truth. Because depending on when your league holds its annual draft you could be weeks, days…or even minutes away from sitting down to select this year’s team.
(Seriously – if you’re only minutes away from your draft, I’m afraid this blog won’t help you. For that matter, nothing will help you at this point – why are you surfing the Internet when you’re about to draft? What’s wrong with you?)
Anyway, since the majority of fantasy leagues have yet to hold their drafts or auctions, let's spend some time examining the five distinct methods of draft preparation.
Which of these descriptions fits your draft preparation style?
1. The Osmosis Method – I can honestly say that this described me perfectly for two or three years until I realized it wasn’t working. I would hit the newsstand at least twice a week and buy every new baseball magazine – fantasy-related or not – that appeared on the shelf. Of course, I never got around to reading all of these magazines…but I still felt my intentions were good. Looking back on it, I have no idea what I was thinking. Did I think that just by purchasing the magazines I’d absorb the information? Or was I hoping to intimidate other owners on Draft Day when I walked into the room with a dozen magazines? Take a look around the room before your draft gets started this year – if you see anyone with a stack of magazines piled up to his eyes, you’ll know exactly what’s going on: that guy didn’t prepare at all.
2. The Information Junkie – Given the fact that you’re reading this blog, I’d say there’s a good chance you fall into this category. The Information Junkie makes a conscious decision on the date that pitchers and catchers report to spring training that he’s going to read everything he possibly can in order to get ready for the season. This means checking all of his favorite fantasy sites three or four times a day. This means reading the local papers online from every major league city every day. And this means saying things out loud such as, “It’s been over 72 hours since Gammons has posted a new column – what does he think this is…a vacation?!?!” The Information Junkie is very dangerous during the entire month of March and should be avoided as much as possible.
3. The Wannabe Scout – Sadly, this is yet another category that I’ve fallen into from time to time. OK, OK, I confess – I’m still there. The Wannabe Scout makes up his mind that he’s going to watch every spring training game that’s broadcast on television. (And with Directv and three Tivos firing on all cylinders in my house, well, let’s just say I know more about the dimensions of Space Coast Stadium and City of Palms Park than anyone really deserves to know.) The problem with watching dozens of spring training games, of course, is that you’re bound to become overly impressed with a handful of players based on just a small sample size. Because, let’s face it – the Wannabe Scout isn’t watching these games for enjoyment…he’s doing it to try and find a sleeper. I can remember very vividly watching a Detroit Tigers spring training telecast a few years ago with a friend of mine and seeing two pitchers that were ridiculously impressive. We both wound up going after these players in our major league auction when they clearly weren’t ready for the big leagues. (By the way, the pitchers? Matt Anderson and a younger, slimmer Francisco Cordero.) But we were convinced that we had seen future dominant closers before anyone else, so we had to go after them. Much like the Information Junkie, the Wannabe Scout is a pathetic figure and deserves no sympathy.
4. The Numbers Geek – I’m not sure why the Numbers Geek even plays fantasy baseball. Because it doesn’t seem like this person really enjoys the sport at all. He simply puts together a complicated spreadsheet that measures the true dollar value of every player in his league. Then on Draft Day, the Numbers Geek refuses to spend any more than what his spreadsheet tells him to. This could mean missing out on the top-tier talent – or it could mean having no money left for the end-game. But the Numbers Geek isn’t really worried about any of that. He’s not out to prove that he has superior baseball knowledge. Nope – he’s simply out to prove that all that time he spent paying attention in math class back in school was really worth something. The Numbers Geek is not dangerous at all, but it is unwise to try and engage him in any sort of baseball discussion. If you do, you’ll likely get a 20-minute monologue about how Morgan Ensberg was way overpriced at $15 given the linear progressions of his three-year stat trends. (Yawn.) Excuse me, I got bored just thinking about that.
5. The List-Maker – We’ve all seen this guy, haven’t we? He marches into the draft with a binder full of lists. He’s taken the time to list his top ten sleepers…his top ten rookies…his top ten pitchers to stay away from…even the top ten left-handed hitting backup corner infielders. It looks like he spent hours making these lists and he’ll spread them all around as the draft begins and begin systematically crossing the names off as the players are taken. This guy is very protective of his lists – he won’t let you see any of them – and covers up his workspace like a smart kid covering up his answers on a calculus test. The problem with the List-Maker approach, obviously, is that at some point you become a prisoner to all of those lists and your entire strategy gets ignored. The best way to deal with a List-Maker on Draft Day is to sit right next to him. Take a handful of fake lists into your draft with you – seriously, just put down a bunch of names on paper – and then spread the lists out next to him. He’ll inevitably start trying to look them over and he’ll spend more time wondering what your lists are all about than worrying about his own team.
So now that we’ve identified the five types of draft prep styles, which one best describes your approach? Chances are – whether you’ll admit it or not – you’ve nodded your head while reading at least one of the descriptions above. And if you’re like me, you’ve probably tried each and every one of them.
But no matter what type of preparation you do, you’re likely to face a bit of anxiety at some point between now and Draft Day. Don’t sweat it, though – this is perfectly normal.
Each year, as a matter of fact, I usually wind up with some awful nightmare about every player in my AL-only league selling for more money than I have available…so I wind up with no players. I realize it’s completely irrational, but at some point – after studying the names, numbers and stats for so long – I work myself up into a panic I guess. And after a day or so it simply goes away.
So what does all of this mean – the draft prep styles and all of the anxiety? The truth of the matter is that it’s all part of the game. After all, you wouldn’t be reading this blog – and identifying with much of it – if you didn’t have a passion for baseball.
Keep that in mind – that all of this really is fun – over the next few weeks as you cram for the most enjoyable “final exam” of the year: Draft Day. As you watch all the spring training games…read every last notebook column from the Minnesota Twins’ beat writer…compile list after list or crunch those dollar values one more time…well, it’s worth pointing out that this is the fun part.
So while you may not be relaxing in Florida or Arizona with a fat expense account – like those writers and television reporters – just remember that even in the middle of all this draft prep that you really are having fun…and you are tied for first place.
The blue skies…the green grass…the smell of hot dogs and the sound of vendors hawking beer and scorecards.
Spring training: the most relaxing and enjoyable time of any baseball season.
At least that’s what the television talking heads and the newspaper beat writers would have everyone believe.
But you and I both know that nothing could be further from the truth. Because depending on when your league holds its annual draft you could be weeks, days…or even minutes away from sitting down to select this year’s team.
(Seriously – if you’re only minutes away from your draft, I’m afraid this blog won’t help you. For that matter, nothing will help you at this point – why are you surfing the Internet when you’re about to draft? What’s wrong with you?)
Anyway, since the majority of fantasy leagues have yet to hold their drafts or auctions, let's spend some time examining the five distinct methods of draft preparation.
Which of these descriptions fits your draft preparation style?
1. The Osmosis Method – I can honestly say that this described me perfectly for two or three years until I realized it wasn’t working. I would hit the newsstand at least twice a week and buy every new baseball magazine – fantasy-related or not – that appeared on the shelf. Of course, I never got around to reading all of these magazines…but I still felt my intentions were good. Looking back on it, I have no idea what I was thinking. Did I think that just by purchasing the magazines I’d absorb the information? Or was I hoping to intimidate other owners on Draft Day when I walked into the room with a dozen magazines? Take a look around the room before your draft gets started this year – if you see anyone with a stack of magazines piled up to his eyes, you’ll know exactly what’s going on: that guy didn’t prepare at all.
2. The Information Junkie – Given the fact that you’re reading this blog, I’d say there’s a good chance you fall into this category. The Information Junkie makes a conscious decision on the date that pitchers and catchers report to spring training that he’s going to read everything he possibly can in order to get ready for the season. This means checking all of his favorite fantasy sites three or four times a day. This means reading the local papers online from every major league city every day. And this means saying things out loud such as, “It’s been over 72 hours since Gammons has posted a new column – what does he think this is…a vacation?!?!” The Information Junkie is very dangerous during the entire month of March and should be avoided as much as possible.
3. The Wannabe Scout – Sadly, this is yet another category that I’ve fallen into from time to time. OK, OK, I confess – I’m still there. The Wannabe Scout makes up his mind that he’s going to watch every spring training game that’s broadcast on television. (And with Directv and three Tivos firing on all cylinders in my house, well, let’s just say I know more about the dimensions of Space Coast Stadium and City of Palms Park than anyone really deserves to know.) The problem with watching dozens of spring training games, of course, is that you’re bound to become overly impressed with a handful of players based on just a small sample size. Because, let’s face it – the Wannabe Scout isn’t watching these games for enjoyment…he’s doing it to try and find a sleeper. I can remember very vividly watching a Detroit Tigers spring training telecast a few years ago with a friend of mine and seeing two pitchers that were ridiculously impressive. We both wound up going after these players in our major league auction when they clearly weren’t ready for the big leagues. (By the way, the pitchers? Matt Anderson and a younger, slimmer Francisco Cordero.) But we were convinced that we had seen future dominant closers before anyone else, so we had to go after them. Much like the Information Junkie, the Wannabe Scout is a pathetic figure and deserves no sympathy.
4. The Numbers Geek – I’m not sure why the Numbers Geek even plays fantasy baseball. Because it doesn’t seem like this person really enjoys the sport at all. He simply puts together a complicated spreadsheet that measures the true dollar value of every player in his league. Then on Draft Day, the Numbers Geek refuses to spend any more than what his spreadsheet tells him to. This could mean missing out on the top-tier talent – or it could mean having no money left for the end-game. But the Numbers Geek isn’t really worried about any of that. He’s not out to prove that he has superior baseball knowledge. Nope – he’s simply out to prove that all that time he spent paying attention in math class back in school was really worth something. The Numbers Geek is not dangerous at all, but it is unwise to try and engage him in any sort of baseball discussion. If you do, you’ll likely get a 20-minute monologue about how Morgan Ensberg was way overpriced at $15 given the linear progressions of his three-year stat trends. (Yawn.) Excuse me, I got bored just thinking about that.
5. The List-Maker – We’ve all seen this guy, haven’t we? He marches into the draft with a binder full of lists. He’s taken the time to list his top ten sleepers…his top ten rookies…his top ten pitchers to stay away from…even the top ten left-handed hitting backup corner infielders. It looks like he spent hours making these lists and he’ll spread them all around as the draft begins and begin systematically crossing the names off as the players are taken. This guy is very protective of his lists – he won’t let you see any of them – and covers up his workspace like a smart kid covering up his answers on a calculus test. The problem with the List-Maker approach, obviously, is that at some point you become a prisoner to all of those lists and your entire strategy gets ignored. The best way to deal with a List-Maker on Draft Day is to sit right next to him. Take a handful of fake lists into your draft with you – seriously, just put down a bunch of names on paper – and then spread the lists out next to him. He’ll inevitably start trying to look them over and he’ll spend more time wondering what your lists are all about than worrying about his own team.
So now that we’ve identified the five types of draft prep styles, which one best describes your approach? Chances are – whether you’ll admit it or not – you’ve nodded your head while reading at least one of the descriptions above. And if you’re like me, you’ve probably tried each and every one of them.
But no matter what type of preparation you do, you’re likely to face a bit of anxiety at some point between now and Draft Day. Don’t sweat it, though – this is perfectly normal.
Each year, as a matter of fact, I usually wind up with some awful nightmare about every player in my AL-only league selling for more money than I have available…so I wind up with no players. I realize it’s completely irrational, but at some point – after studying the names, numbers and stats for so long – I work myself up into a panic I guess. And after a day or so it simply goes away.
So what does all of this mean – the draft prep styles and all of the anxiety? The truth of the matter is that it’s all part of the game. After all, you wouldn’t be reading this blog – and identifying with much of it – if you didn’t have a passion for baseball.
Keep that in mind – that all of this really is fun – over the next few weeks as you cram for the most enjoyable “final exam” of the year: Draft Day. As you watch all the spring training games…read every last notebook column from the Minnesota Twins’ beat writer…compile list after list or crunch those dollar values one more time…well, it’s worth pointing out that this is the fun part.
So while you may not be relaxing in Florida or Arizona with a fat expense account – like those writers and television reporters – just remember that even in the middle of all this draft prep that you really are having fun…and you are tied for first place.
Friday, February 23, 2007
Around the Majors for Friday
Lots of interesting stuff going on in spring camps -- and I'm not even counting the ongoing soap opera involving Manny Ramirez and that Atlantic City car show.
* In Yankees' camp, it's beginning to look like the New York media has identified Mike Mussina as this year's punching bag. Murray Chass of the New York Times got the ball rolling with this story in Friday's paper...
* White Sox fans -- and keeper league owners (like yours truly) locked into a contract with Juan Uribe -- breathed a sigh of relief on Friday when news broke that the shortstop had been cleared of all charges in an off-season shooting in the Dominican Republic ...
* At Blue Jays' camp, apparently ace Roy Halladay has grown jealous of all the attention given to new Red Sox pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka and his alleged "gyroball." Find out how he plans to grab his share of the spotlight...
* I always hoped Edgar Martinez would make a comeback...
* Mark your calendars -- the Phillies and Mets meet in a three-game set at Citizens' Bank Park beginning April 9th. And somebody's gonna get beaned...
* One thing we heard all during the Carlos Lee Sweepstakes this past off-season was that teams were concerned about Lee's conditioning. So what did the Astros do when he reported to camp? They gave him pancakes, of course...
Lastly for today -- am I the only one who feels like he stepped into a time machine? A quick glance at the baseball headlines for today revealed that Randy Johnson feels good...Roger Clemens doesn't know what his next move might be...Sammy Sosa put on a big-league uniform...and Pedro Martinez is trying to get healthy.
Even though the calendar says "2007" I could swear it feels like 1998...
* In Yankees' camp, it's beginning to look like the New York media has identified Mike Mussina as this year's punching bag. Murray Chass of the New York Times got the ball rolling with this story in Friday's paper...
* White Sox fans -- and keeper league owners (like yours truly) locked into a contract with Juan Uribe -- breathed a sigh of relief on Friday when news broke that the shortstop had been cleared of all charges in an off-season shooting in the Dominican Republic ...
* At Blue Jays' camp, apparently ace Roy Halladay has grown jealous of all the attention given to new Red Sox pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka and his alleged "gyroball." Find out how he plans to grab his share of the spotlight...
* I always hoped Edgar Martinez would make a comeback...
* Mark your calendars -- the Phillies and Mets meet in a three-game set at Citizens' Bank Park beginning April 9th. And somebody's gonna get beaned...
* One thing we heard all during the Carlos Lee Sweepstakes this past off-season was that teams were concerned about Lee's conditioning. So what did the Astros do when he reported to camp? They gave him pancakes, of course...
Lastly for today -- am I the only one who feels like he stepped into a time machine? A quick glance at the baseball headlines for today revealed that Randy Johnson feels good...Roger Clemens doesn't know what his next move might be...Sammy Sosa put on a big-league uniform...and Pedro Martinez is trying to get healthy.
Even though the calendar says "2007" I could swear it feels like 1998...
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
7 Common Draft Day Traps (Continued)
In my last post, we examined the first three of our “Seven Draft Day Traps” and looked at how these traps might easily be avoided.
Now we’ll continue that discussion by looking at four more common – but dangerous – traps and identify ways to steer clear. As I wrote in my last post, many of these ideas may seem like common sense…but common sense is usually the first thing thrown out the window when Draft Day rolls around.
So take a few moments to consider these remaining “traps”.
Trap #4 – Ignoring the Competition
I’m always fascinated by “rookie” owners. Their wide-eyed optimism, huge stack of pre-season magazines and their all-too-common rookie mistakes never fail to amuse me. You’ve seen the mistakes time and time again. Failing to cross off players on their list…not knowing how much money they have left to spend…or not understanding position eligibility are some of the most common.
But one of the mistakes they almost always make is ignoring their competition. They’re so enthralled with their own “wish lists” – and so consumed with their neatly highlighted pre-season magazines – that they have no idea what is going on around them.
They are truly missing out on one of the most important considerations for any owner: position scarcity. Knowing just how many teams need shortstops, for example, can dramatically impact the price you may be willing to pay for a quality shortstop during your draft. A solid, “middle-of-the-pack” shortstop might be worth, say, $9 or $10 early on…before most of the shortstop positions are filled. But if, say, only three owners are still in the market for a shortstop, it can dramatically affect the price that player will command.
It’s important to remember that you are not drafting your team in isolation. As the Earl Weaver quote says, “Everything matters.” So you should be sure to record every selection – and fill in every roster – so that you know exactly who needs what player…and how much they have left to spend.
I should point out that this is not a mistake that is only made by “rookies.” I’ve seen plenty of experienced, well-respected owners go through an entire draft without really paying attention to what their fellow owners are doing.
It might sound like common sense to say that “paying attention” is important during Draft Day…but it’s an important enough point that it warrants mentioning. And remember – paying attention by itself isn’t enough. You must be sure to not only record each move that is made but also carefully consider its impact.
In many cases, in fact, it is good to actually anticipate your competitors’ moves BEFORE the draft. If you expect Team A to spend around $30 on C. C. Sabathia…make a note of it before the draft. If your prediction was correct, you’ve already prepared for that outcome. And if things go differently than you had planned, you will recognize this fact and be able to react accordingly.
Trap #5 – Putting Too Much Stock in the “Endgame”
This is a fantasy trap that has actually reversed itself within the past five years. There was a time – not all that long ago – that every fantasy advisor would encourage owners to “wait out your opponents” and “save your money for the end of the draft.”
The basic spirit of that advice is still valid: you do not want to overpay for players at the beginning of your draft and it is important to have enough money left in the later rounds to grab a few bargains.
But the advice was repeated so loudly – and so often – that now nearly everyone plays a waiting game. Many owners – thinking they’re doing the right thing – let several good values pass them by in the early portion of their draft, waiting for some “bargains” that never materialize.
Don’t get me wrong – in many cases there are bargains to be had in the “endgame” portion of a draft. But those bargains – a top rookie catcher for $1, for example – are much different than an early-round bargain like a proven, All-Star 1st baseman for $10 below his estimated dollar value. Don’t pass up on any bargain – as long as that bargain fits into your strategic plan – hoping for a better bargain later. There is NO guarantee that other bargains will materialize…or be as good as the one sitting in front of you.
In order to be successful in this game you must have the courage – and the vision – to “buck the trend”. And you must also be conscious of everything that is going on around you. Just like in the stock market, the time to buy is when prices are low…and the time to pass is when prices are high.
Make sure you have worked out reasonable estimates for all of the top players available in your draft. DO THE MATH…the time you spend will be well worth it. If – according to your calculations (which must take into account “draft inflation”) David Ortiz is going for $5 too much…let him go. If, though, Oritz is available for $7 or $8 less than you had expected – and he fits into your strategic plan – then by all means grab him.
Remember – you NEVER want to leave a draft with points left over. Too many owners save so much money for the “endgame bargains” that they wind up with as much as $10 or $15 left over…and that is inexcusable.
Trap #6 – Hometown Stars and Postseason Heroes
Another classic fantasy trap involves overpaying for last year’s postseason heroes…and current hometown favorites.
The beauty of baseball’s postseason is that its global stage creates new stars each fall. Problem is… not all of those “stars” turn out to be worthwhile fantasy investments.
While it’s true that the last “meaningful” baseball you saw happened last fall, that doesn’t mean you need to pay a penny more for any of the players on the field during the Fall Classic. In fact – if anything – you should be skeptical. (See Cabrera, Francisco.)
That’s because novice owners almost always fall in love with the players who were all over SportsCenter – and on the cover of Sports Illustrated – last fall. “Gosh,” the novice owner thinks, “If he’s that valuable to the league champs, imagine what he’ll do for my team.”
Smart owners recognize this as a trap and will act accordingly. It might be a good idea to toss out the name of a postseason hero early in your draft just to see if anyone will take the bait and spend an extra $5 to get last fall’s Glamour Boy.
The other half of this common fantasy trap is also an obvious one. Hometown stars typically go for a few dollars more than they should, just because everyone is so familiar with them.
And, hey, if your goal as a rotisserie owner is to have a few of the local nine on your squad so you can cheer them on when you head out to the park…more power to you. Just don’t plan on having any Yoo-Hoo baths in the near future.
Just like the postseason heroes, it may be a good idea to throw out the name of a local star early in your auction and see if anyone falls into this trap. If so, you’ll have squeezed a few extra dollars out of a competitor’s budget that might come back to haunt him later on.
A word of caution: The “hometown hero” effect can also work in reverse. For those teams whose fans are unhappy with their team’s management, the net result might be that hometown players actually go for LESS than full value. This is easy to spot, of course. As long as you know how your fellow owners feel about their hometown team, you should be able to guess how they’ll bid on their “heroes” during your draft.
Trap #7 – Assuming Too Much Risk
Risk assessment might sound like something only insurance agents need to worry about, but it’s an important concept for rotisserie owners to grasp as well.
For rotisserie players, there are many types of risk that you need to be aware of when selecting a player. For example, those of you who play in NL-only league certainly run the risk of seeing your $40 outfielder traded to the American League in July.
Another type of risk you must concern yourself with – and is the most measurable of all the risks in the game – is the risk of injury.
It might be reassuring to some fans to read all the spring training “puff pieces” on the ace pitcher’s surgically repaired elbow. But those stories will do nothing for your team if you spend big bucks on this player only to find out that he’ll wind up on the DL for the season.
Everyone knows that injuries are a factor in rotisserie baseball. What you must do – as a successful owner – is measure the risk involved with each player you draft. Are you loading up with too many injury-prone pitchers? Do you have more than one outfielder that missed more than 35 games last year? You MUST ask yourself these questions as you prepare for your draft…as well as during your draft. If you forget to evaluate your risk you might wind up with way too many “If’s” on your roster for a championship run.
Injuries – and trades to different leagues – are not the only risk factor that must be considered. A commonly overlooked risk factor is the “Weak 2nd half” effect. Be sure you have confidence in each player you plan to select who had a less than stellar second half to the previous season. And – by all means – take caution to avoid having more than two or three of these “If’s” on your squad.
One more risk factor to account for: Starting pitchers who might kill your entire staff. Has this happened to you before: You spend an entire draft putting together a pitching staff that is rock-solid. You have low-ERA and low-WHIP starters who should get you plenty of wins and your relievers are all top-notch. But just before you finish your draft you pick up one last pitcher whom you figure “can’t be all that bad.” (Can you say “Ken Hill?”)
Before you know it the season is underway and that “top-notch” pitching staff is being murdered by one or two horrible starting pitchers. Your ERA and WHIP are climbing higher and higher and soon you’ll need to burn a free agent signing in order to right the ship.
All of that could have been avoided with proper preparation. Make a list of “Torpedo Pitchers” who will kill your pitching stats and take that list to your draft. If you find yourself about to bid on any pitchers on the list, you should immediately leave the room and return only when the bidding on that player has finished. Trust me…it’s the only way.
Now we’ll continue that discussion by looking at four more common – but dangerous – traps and identify ways to steer clear. As I wrote in my last post, many of these ideas may seem like common sense…but common sense is usually the first thing thrown out the window when Draft Day rolls around.
So take a few moments to consider these remaining “traps”.
Trap #4 – Ignoring the Competition
I’m always fascinated by “rookie” owners. Their wide-eyed optimism, huge stack of pre-season magazines and their all-too-common rookie mistakes never fail to amuse me. You’ve seen the mistakes time and time again. Failing to cross off players on their list…not knowing how much money they have left to spend…or not understanding position eligibility are some of the most common.
But one of the mistakes they almost always make is ignoring their competition. They’re so enthralled with their own “wish lists” – and so consumed with their neatly highlighted pre-season magazines – that they have no idea what is going on around them.
They are truly missing out on one of the most important considerations for any owner: position scarcity. Knowing just how many teams need shortstops, for example, can dramatically impact the price you may be willing to pay for a quality shortstop during your draft. A solid, “middle-of-the-pack” shortstop might be worth, say, $9 or $10 early on…before most of the shortstop positions are filled. But if, say, only three owners are still in the market for a shortstop, it can dramatically affect the price that player will command.
It’s important to remember that you are not drafting your team in isolation. As the Earl Weaver quote says, “Everything matters.” So you should be sure to record every selection – and fill in every roster – so that you know exactly who needs what player…and how much they have left to spend.
I should point out that this is not a mistake that is only made by “rookies.” I’ve seen plenty of experienced, well-respected owners go through an entire draft without really paying attention to what their fellow owners are doing.
It might sound like common sense to say that “paying attention” is important during Draft Day…but it’s an important enough point that it warrants mentioning. And remember – paying attention by itself isn’t enough. You must be sure to not only record each move that is made but also carefully consider its impact.
In many cases, in fact, it is good to actually anticipate your competitors’ moves BEFORE the draft. If you expect Team A to spend around $30 on C. C. Sabathia…make a note of it before the draft. If your prediction was correct, you’ve already prepared for that outcome. And if things go differently than you had planned, you will recognize this fact and be able to react accordingly.
Trap #5 – Putting Too Much Stock in the “Endgame”
This is a fantasy trap that has actually reversed itself within the past five years. There was a time – not all that long ago – that every fantasy advisor would encourage owners to “wait out your opponents” and “save your money for the end of the draft.”
The basic spirit of that advice is still valid: you do not want to overpay for players at the beginning of your draft and it is important to have enough money left in the later rounds to grab a few bargains.
But the advice was repeated so loudly – and so often – that now nearly everyone plays a waiting game. Many owners – thinking they’re doing the right thing – let several good values pass them by in the early portion of their draft, waiting for some “bargains” that never materialize.
Don’t get me wrong – in many cases there are bargains to be had in the “endgame” portion of a draft. But those bargains – a top rookie catcher for $1, for example – are much different than an early-round bargain like a proven, All-Star 1st baseman for $10 below his estimated dollar value. Don’t pass up on any bargain – as long as that bargain fits into your strategic plan – hoping for a better bargain later. There is NO guarantee that other bargains will materialize…or be as good as the one sitting in front of you.
In order to be successful in this game you must have the courage – and the vision – to “buck the trend”. And you must also be conscious of everything that is going on around you. Just like in the stock market, the time to buy is when prices are low…and the time to pass is when prices are high.
Make sure you have worked out reasonable estimates for all of the top players available in your draft. DO THE MATH…the time you spend will be well worth it. If – according to your calculations (which must take into account “draft inflation”) David Ortiz is going for $5 too much…let him go. If, though, Oritz is available for $7 or $8 less than you had expected – and he fits into your strategic plan – then by all means grab him.
Remember – you NEVER want to leave a draft with points left over. Too many owners save so much money for the “endgame bargains” that they wind up with as much as $10 or $15 left over…and that is inexcusable.
Trap #6 – Hometown Stars and Postseason Heroes
Another classic fantasy trap involves overpaying for last year’s postseason heroes…and current hometown favorites.
The beauty of baseball’s postseason is that its global stage creates new stars each fall. Problem is… not all of those “stars” turn out to be worthwhile fantasy investments.
While it’s true that the last “meaningful” baseball you saw happened last fall, that doesn’t mean you need to pay a penny more for any of the players on the field during the Fall Classic. In fact – if anything – you should be skeptical. (See Cabrera, Francisco.)
That’s because novice owners almost always fall in love with the players who were all over SportsCenter – and on the cover of Sports Illustrated – last fall. “Gosh,” the novice owner thinks, “If he’s that valuable to the league champs, imagine what he’ll do for my team.”
Smart owners recognize this as a trap and will act accordingly. It might be a good idea to toss out the name of a postseason hero early in your draft just to see if anyone will take the bait and spend an extra $5 to get last fall’s Glamour Boy.
The other half of this common fantasy trap is also an obvious one. Hometown stars typically go for a few dollars more than they should, just because everyone is so familiar with them.
And, hey, if your goal as a rotisserie owner is to have a few of the local nine on your squad so you can cheer them on when you head out to the park…more power to you. Just don’t plan on having any Yoo-Hoo baths in the near future.
Just like the postseason heroes, it may be a good idea to throw out the name of a local star early in your auction and see if anyone falls into this trap. If so, you’ll have squeezed a few extra dollars out of a competitor’s budget that might come back to haunt him later on.
A word of caution: The “hometown hero” effect can also work in reverse. For those teams whose fans are unhappy with their team’s management, the net result might be that hometown players actually go for LESS than full value. This is easy to spot, of course. As long as you know how your fellow owners feel about their hometown team, you should be able to guess how they’ll bid on their “heroes” during your draft.
Trap #7 – Assuming Too Much Risk
Risk assessment might sound like something only insurance agents need to worry about, but it’s an important concept for rotisserie owners to grasp as well.
For rotisserie players, there are many types of risk that you need to be aware of when selecting a player. For example, those of you who play in NL-only league certainly run the risk of seeing your $40 outfielder traded to the American League in July.
Another type of risk you must concern yourself with – and is the most measurable of all the risks in the game – is the risk of injury.
It might be reassuring to some fans to read all the spring training “puff pieces” on the ace pitcher’s surgically repaired elbow. But those stories will do nothing for your team if you spend big bucks on this player only to find out that he’ll wind up on the DL for the season.
Everyone knows that injuries are a factor in rotisserie baseball. What you must do – as a successful owner – is measure the risk involved with each player you draft. Are you loading up with too many injury-prone pitchers? Do you have more than one outfielder that missed more than 35 games last year? You MUST ask yourself these questions as you prepare for your draft…as well as during your draft. If you forget to evaluate your risk you might wind up with way too many “If’s” on your roster for a championship run.
Injuries – and trades to different leagues – are not the only risk factor that must be considered. A commonly overlooked risk factor is the “Weak 2nd half” effect. Be sure you have confidence in each player you plan to select who had a less than stellar second half to the previous season. And – by all means – take caution to avoid having more than two or three of these “If’s” on your squad.
One more risk factor to account for: Starting pitchers who might kill your entire staff. Has this happened to you before: You spend an entire draft putting together a pitching staff that is rock-solid. You have low-ERA and low-WHIP starters who should get you plenty of wins and your relievers are all top-notch. But just before you finish your draft you pick up one last pitcher whom you figure “can’t be all that bad.” (Can you say “Ken Hill?”)
Before you know it the season is underway and that “top-notch” pitching staff is being murdered by one or two horrible starting pitchers. Your ERA and WHIP are climbing higher and higher and soon you’ll need to burn a free agent signing in order to right the ship.
All of that could have been avoided with proper preparation. Make a list of “Torpedo Pitchers” who will kill your pitching stats and take that list to your draft. If you find yourself about to bid on any pitchers on the list, you should immediately leave the room and return only when the bidding on that player has finished. Trust me…it’s the only way.
7 Common Draft Day Traps
Since we still have a week to go before exhibition games begin, let's get this blog kicked off with a look at the one day that will have more influence over their team’s performance than any other – Draft Day.
To help prepare you for this all-important day, I've identified the seven most common draft day traps...and I've tried to give you easy suggestions for avoiding them.
Some of these traps may seem obvious to you – and some of the suggestions for avoiding them may seem like common sense – but it’s amazing how many owners throw common sense out the window and ignore the obvious once the players and dollar figures start flying.
So then, without further adieu, let’s dive right into the seven most deadly “Draft Day Traps”…
Trap #1 – Failure to Plan Is a Plan For Failure
It may sound like common sense, but failure to create – and stick to – a solid plan for a draft is the most common Draft Day Trap that owners fall into.
And when I say, “plan” I do not mean reading a pre-season magazine or two. I don’t even mean putting together a “wish list” of players. What I’m talking about is a carefully constructed strategy for success that takes into consideration not only your team’s needs and tendencies…but also the needs and tendencies of all the other owners in your league.
Think about it. How many times in the past has one of your fellow owners either failed to plan…or planned poorly? Most likely it’s the same two or three owners year after year. They show up with a couple of hand-written notes and nothing more. They constantly bring up players who have already been drafted or protected by another owner. And by the time you get to the final rounds of your draft, they are most likely asking, “Who’s that guy?” Or, “What position does he play?”
Obviously by reading this column and visiting this web site you are a step – or several steps – ahead of those owners. But in order to truly dominate your league you must go the extra mile and create a plan that takes everything into consideration.
As Earl Weaver once said, “Everything matters…and everything changes everything.” That’s true on the field and in a Rotisserie draft room.
If you break Weaver’s quote down, you realize that each and every bid that is made – not just who gets what player…but every single bid made by an owner – is important to you.
Let’s say, for example that an owner with Jimmy Rollins on his roster suddenly bids $30 on Jose Reyes. Is the owner simply trying to drive up Reyes's price? Is he trying to stockpile middle infielders for a potential trade? Or is Reyes just one of his favorite players and someone he’ll spend any price to own?
These are the types of things that must be considered. If you prepared properly for your draft, you will already know the answers – or at least have an educated guess for each answer – to the questions above. Before the owner finished making his $30 bid you’ll already know what it means – as well as how you should respond.
Here are a few essentials that you must take into consideration when constructing your Draft Day strategy:
How much will it take? – No…I’m not talking about how much you’ll need to spend to get your favorite player. Instead, I’m talking about what statistics you’ll need over the course of the year to accumulate points in every single category. Look back at the final statistics from your league over the past few years and write down clear goals for each category. (A typical goal is to finish second in each category.) Then – as you begin to think about how you’ll build your roster – make sure you’re adding stats in those categories that you need. Also – it’s important to take into consideration moves other owners might make that will impact these goals. If, for example, two or three owners are stockpiling closers then you may find yourself lowering your expectations for saves in order to avoid a bidding war.
What happens if…? -- Having a fallback position is an important step that 95% of all owners fail to take. As we said earlier, establishing a plan – and sticking to it – is critical. But you must maintain a degree of flexibility within that plan. In many leagues there are several owners who might be a bit unpredictable in their ways. Or – even worse – there might be an owner or two who doesn’t have any idea what they’re doing. Those kinds of owners can throw a wrench into even the best-laid plans. So…if, for example, adding a power-hitting first baseman is important to your team, be sure to have a backup plan in case a few other owners drive up prices way beyond reason. In this instance you might have to settle on a lesser-known first baseman and make up the power you need at a position – like 2nd base or catcher – that is not normally noted for power production.
Who’s in and who’s out? -- Usually by the mid-point of each draft you can tell which owners are on their way to contention and which owners will drop out of the race by Memorial Day. Take this into account as you move into the final rounds of your draft…as these “non-contenders” will most likely be looking to make trades with an eye toward the future in just a few months. Be sure you are familiar with their roster and use one or two of your $1 picks on players that might be appealing to an owner with no chance to finish in the money. Some of the best trades you can make as an owner might take months to develop…so it’s best to make plans for mid-season acquisitions at draft time.
Offense vs. Pitching – In the weeks leading up to your draft, you must make a determination about how much you plan to spend on offense as compared to your spending on pitching. There are several theories on this topic, the most common of which recommends a 65%-35% split in favor of offense. (Typically, this imbalance is due to the lack of predictability among pitchers.) It’s important, though, to realize ahead of time that every league is different…so the “65/35” rule may or may not apply to your situation. But whatever you come up with…having this budget prepared prior to Draft Day will put you one step ahead of the competition.
Trap #2 – Draft Day Distractions
Distractions. They’re everywhere on Draft Day. Have you seen one – or more – of these?
* Late-arriving owners
* Owners more concerned with food than their teams
* Owners more concerned with beer than their teams
* Chain-smokers…or cigar smokers
* Owners who call “time out” every three minutes
* Owners who start their own conversations while bidding is going on
* The owner who makes a wisecrack about every player drafted – except theirs
* Having a television on in the background
* Owners who constantly bring up players already on other rosters
Here is the only advice I can give you on how to deal with Draft Day distractions: Block them out. Don’t fall victim to them at all. While it might be fun to throw in a wisecrack or two throughout the draft…any more than that and you’re most likely just encouraging more distraction.
Don’t get me wrong – Draft Day is the most important day of the year for a rotisserie owner…and you should absolutely have fun during yours. But don’t let that fun get in the way of drafting a good team. Otherwise you’ll take away the six months worth of enjoyment you’ll get from a wire-to-wire first place finish.
Think of your draft this way: A good hitter always “visualizes” his at-bat before getting in the box. You can do the same. Using your plan, take an hour or so to try and go through the list of available players and anticipate how much they will sell for and who will wind up with them. That way – on Draft Day – you’ll have already gone through the exercise once and if you do get distracted for a moment or two you won’t feel as lost when your focus returns.
Another word of caution: don’t attempt to distract others. While the idea of throwing someone else off their game might sound appealing…you’ve got too much to worry about to spend your time and energy on someone else. Stay focused on the task at hand: building a championship ballclub!
Trap #3 – Seeing Stars
At some point in your pre-draft preparation you must ask yourself why you are playing rotisserie baseball. I’ve always found that there are essentially two types of owners. The first type is the guy who is “just happy to be there.” He always picks up his favorite players and spends the entire season talking trash about how great his top two or three players are. Of course…he also spends most of the season at or near last place, so that’s just about all he has to talk about.
The second type of owner is more interested in winning than in collecting his favorite players. He would rather see Johan Santana go to someone else for $48 than spend the money…even though he may be wearing a game-used, autographed Santana jersey during the draft.
Falling in love with star players is one of the oldest fantasy traps there is. And it’s an easy one to fall into. Let’s face it…there is something rewarding about owning the player who’s on the cover of all the pre-season magazines. The trash-talking power alone is enough to make you consider wrecking your budget.
But…don’t do it. No matter how tempting it might be to say “I’ll bid $49 for Giambi” you have to remember that – unlike George Steinbrenner – you are operating under a strict salary cap. Spending too much on one player might give you some short-term feelings of invincibility…but you’ll be left out of the rest of the draft with no money to spend.
Another problem with “superstar” players is that they are not always “rotisserie superstars.” You have to remember that the game you are playing – rotisserie baseball – is very different from “real” baseball. Being a great team guy…or a leader in the clubhouse…or even a defensive wizard – is worth absolutely nothing to you.
Think of the slugger who only produces when the game is out of reach. The rotisserie equivalent would be a power hitter who produces for you in the HR category but kills your average…provides no speed…and is only mediocre in the RBI department. Those are the kinds of players that are usually overpriced. Novices are in love with the long ball…let them have the Dave Kingmans of the world while you spend your money on more productive alternatives.
OK...that's all for now. In my next post, I'll identify the four remaining Draft Day traps and how you can avoid them.
To help prepare you for this all-important day, I've identified the seven most common draft day traps...and I've tried to give you easy suggestions for avoiding them.
Some of these traps may seem obvious to you – and some of the suggestions for avoiding them may seem like common sense – but it’s amazing how many owners throw common sense out the window and ignore the obvious once the players and dollar figures start flying.
So then, without further adieu, let’s dive right into the seven most deadly “Draft Day Traps”…
Trap #1 – Failure to Plan Is a Plan For Failure
It may sound like common sense, but failure to create – and stick to – a solid plan for a draft is the most common Draft Day Trap that owners fall into.
And when I say, “plan” I do not mean reading a pre-season magazine or two. I don’t even mean putting together a “wish list” of players. What I’m talking about is a carefully constructed strategy for success that takes into consideration not only your team’s needs and tendencies…but also the needs and tendencies of all the other owners in your league.
Think about it. How many times in the past has one of your fellow owners either failed to plan…or planned poorly? Most likely it’s the same two or three owners year after year. They show up with a couple of hand-written notes and nothing more. They constantly bring up players who have already been drafted or protected by another owner. And by the time you get to the final rounds of your draft, they are most likely asking, “Who’s that guy?” Or, “What position does he play?”
Obviously by reading this column and visiting this web site you are a step – or several steps – ahead of those owners. But in order to truly dominate your league you must go the extra mile and create a plan that takes everything into consideration.
As Earl Weaver once said, “Everything matters…and everything changes everything.” That’s true on the field and in a Rotisserie draft room.
If you break Weaver’s quote down, you realize that each and every bid that is made – not just who gets what player…but every single bid made by an owner – is important to you.
Let’s say, for example that an owner with Jimmy Rollins on his roster suddenly bids $30 on Jose Reyes. Is the owner simply trying to drive up Reyes's price? Is he trying to stockpile middle infielders for a potential trade? Or is Reyes just one of his favorite players and someone he’ll spend any price to own?
These are the types of things that must be considered. If you prepared properly for your draft, you will already know the answers – or at least have an educated guess for each answer – to the questions above. Before the owner finished making his $30 bid you’ll already know what it means – as well as how you should respond.
Here are a few essentials that you must take into consideration when constructing your Draft Day strategy:
How much will it take? – No…I’m not talking about how much you’ll need to spend to get your favorite player. Instead, I’m talking about what statistics you’ll need over the course of the year to accumulate points in every single category. Look back at the final statistics from your league over the past few years and write down clear goals for each category. (A typical goal is to finish second in each category.) Then – as you begin to think about how you’ll build your roster – make sure you’re adding stats in those categories that you need. Also – it’s important to take into consideration moves other owners might make that will impact these goals. If, for example, two or three owners are stockpiling closers then you may find yourself lowering your expectations for saves in order to avoid a bidding war.
What happens if…? -- Having a fallback position is an important step that 95% of all owners fail to take. As we said earlier, establishing a plan – and sticking to it – is critical. But you must maintain a degree of flexibility within that plan. In many leagues there are several owners who might be a bit unpredictable in their ways. Or – even worse – there might be an owner or two who doesn’t have any idea what they’re doing. Those kinds of owners can throw a wrench into even the best-laid plans. So…if, for example, adding a power-hitting first baseman is important to your team, be sure to have a backup plan in case a few other owners drive up prices way beyond reason. In this instance you might have to settle on a lesser-known first baseman and make up the power you need at a position – like 2nd base or catcher – that is not normally noted for power production.
Who’s in and who’s out? -- Usually by the mid-point of each draft you can tell which owners are on their way to contention and which owners will drop out of the race by Memorial Day. Take this into account as you move into the final rounds of your draft…as these “non-contenders” will most likely be looking to make trades with an eye toward the future in just a few months. Be sure you are familiar with their roster and use one or two of your $1 picks on players that might be appealing to an owner with no chance to finish in the money. Some of the best trades you can make as an owner might take months to develop…so it’s best to make plans for mid-season acquisitions at draft time.
Offense vs. Pitching – In the weeks leading up to your draft, you must make a determination about how much you plan to spend on offense as compared to your spending on pitching. There are several theories on this topic, the most common of which recommends a 65%-35% split in favor of offense. (Typically, this imbalance is due to the lack of predictability among pitchers.) It’s important, though, to realize ahead of time that every league is different…so the “65/35” rule may or may not apply to your situation. But whatever you come up with…having this budget prepared prior to Draft Day will put you one step ahead of the competition.
Trap #2 – Draft Day Distractions
Distractions. They’re everywhere on Draft Day. Have you seen one – or more – of these?
* Late-arriving owners
* Owners more concerned with food than their teams
* Owners more concerned with beer than their teams
* Chain-smokers…or cigar smokers
* Owners who call “time out” every three minutes
* Owners who start their own conversations while bidding is going on
* The owner who makes a wisecrack about every player drafted – except theirs
* Having a television on in the background
* Owners who constantly bring up players already on other rosters
Here is the only advice I can give you on how to deal with Draft Day distractions: Block them out. Don’t fall victim to them at all. While it might be fun to throw in a wisecrack or two throughout the draft…any more than that and you’re most likely just encouraging more distraction.
Don’t get me wrong – Draft Day is the most important day of the year for a rotisserie owner…and you should absolutely have fun during yours. But don’t let that fun get in the way of drafting a good team. Otherwise you’ll take away the six months worth of enjoyment you’ll get from a wire-to-wire first place finish.
Think of your draft this way: A good hitter always “visualizes” his at-bat before getting in the box. You can do the same. Using your plan, take an hour or so to try and go through the list of available players and anticipate how much they will sell for and who will wind up with them. That way – on Draft Day – you’ll have already gone through the exercise once and if you do get distracted for a moment or two you won’t feel as lost when your focus returns.
Another word of caution: don’t attempt to distract others. While the idea of throwing someone else off their game might sound appealing…you’ve got too much to worry about to spend your time and energy on someone else. Stay focused on the task at hand: building a championship ballclub!
Trap #3 – Seeing Stars
At some point in your pre-draft preparation you must ask yourself why you are playing rotisserie baseball. I’ve always found that there are essentially two types of owners. The first type is the guy who is “just happy to be there.” He always picks up his favorite players and spends the entire season talking trash about how great his top two or three players are. Of course…he also spends most of the season at or near last place, so that’s just about all he has to talk about.
The second type of owner is more interested in winning than in collecting his favorite players. He would rather see Johan Santana go to someone else for $48 than spend the money…even though he may be wearing a game-used, autographed Santana jersey during the draft.
Falling in love with star players is one of the oldest fantasy traps there is. And it’s an easy one to fall into. Let’s face it…there is something rewarding about owning the player who’s on the cover of all the pre-season magazines. The trash-talking power alone is enough to make you consider wrecking your budget.
But…don’t do it. No matter how tempting it might be to say “I’ll bid $49 for Giambi” you have to remember that – unlike George Steinbrenner – you are operating under a strict salary cap. Spending too much on one player might give you some short-term feelings of invincibility…but you’ll be left out of the rest of the draft with no money to spend.
Another problem with “superstar” players is that they are not always “rotisserie superstars.” You have to remember that the game you are playing – rotisserie baseball – is very different from “real” baseball. Being a great team guy…or a leader in the clubhouse…or even a defensive wizard – is worth absolutely nothing to you.
Think of the slugger who only produces when the game is out of reach. The rotisserie equivalent would be a power hitter who produces for you in the HR category but kills your average…provides no speed…and is only mediocre in the RBI department. Those are the kinds of players that are usually overpriced. Novices are in love with the long ball…let them have the Dave Kingmans of the world while you spend your money on more productive alternatives.
OK...that's all for now. In my next post, I'll identify the four remaining Draft Day traps and how you can avoid them.
Welcome to Trust Your Stuff
Welcome to the inaugural post for Trust Your Stuff...and to the 2007 baseball season.
During the month of March, this blog will focus almost exclusively on highlighting the most interesting nuggets to come from the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues. As an admitted spring training junkie, I plan to watch as many exhibition games as possible on television (Directv and three Tivos make this easy) and I study every box score more intently than a college student cramming for a history final.
Once the regular season begins, I'll use this space to post regular comments on what's happening in the majors and minors....and as a supplement to my regular, weekly "Game Within the Game" column on SportsBlurb.com.
Enjoy.
During the month of March, this blog will focus almost exclusively on highlighting the most interesting nuggets to come from the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues. As an admitted spring training junkie, I plan to watch as many exhibition games as possible on television (Directv and three Tivos make this easy) and I study every box score more intently than a college student cramming for a history final.
Once the regular season begins, I'll use this space to post regular comments on what's happening in the majors and minors....and as a supplement to my regular, weekly "Game Within the Game" column on SportsBlurb.com.
Enjoy.
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