7 Common Draft Day Traps (Continued)

In my last post, we examined the first three of our “Seven Draft Day Traps” and looked at how these traps might easily be avoided.

Now we’ll continue that discussion by looking at four more common – but dangerous – traps and identify ways to steer clear. As I wrote in my last post, many of these ideas may seem like common sense…but common sense is usually the first thing thrown out the window when Draft Day rolls around.

So take a few moments to consider these remaining “traps”.

Trap #4 – Ignoring the Competition

I’m always fascinated by “rookie” owners. Their wide-eyed optimism, huge stack of pre-season magazines and their all-too-common rookie mistakes never fail to amuse me. You’ve seen the mistakes time and time again. Failing to cross off players on their list…not knowing how much money they have left to spend…or not understanding position eligibility are some of the most common.

But one of the mistakes they almost always make is ignoring their competition. They’re so enthralled with their own “wish lists” – and so consumed with their neatly highlighted pre-season magazines – that they have no idea what is going on around them.

They are truly missing out on one of the most important considerations for any owner: position scarcity. Knowing just how many teams need shortstops, for example, can dramatically impact the price you may be willing to pay for a quality shortstop during your draft. A solid, “middle-of-the-pack” shortstop might be worth, say, $9 or $10 early on…before most of the shortstop positions are filled. But if, say, only three owners are still in the market for a shortstop, it can dramatically affect the price that player will command.

It’s important to remember that you are not drafting your team in isolation. As the Earl Weaver quote says, “Everything matters.” So you should be sure to record every selection – and fill in every roster – so that you know exactly who needs what player…and how much they have left to spend.

I should point out that this is not a mistake that is only made by “rookies.” I’ve seen plenty of experienced, well-respected owners go through an entire draft without really paying attention to what their fellow owners are doing.

It might sound like common sense to say that “paying attention” is important during Draft Day…but it’s an important enough point that it warrants mentioning. And remember – paying attention by itself isn’t enough. You must be sure to not only record each move that is made but also carefully consider its impact.

In many cases, in fact, it is good to actually anticipate your competitors’ moves BEFORE the draft. If you expect Team A to spend around $30 on C. C. Sabathia…make a note of it before the draft. If your prediction was correct, you’ve already prepared for that outcome. And if things go differently than you had planned, you will recognize this fact and be able to react accordingly.

Trap #5 – Putting Too Much Stock in the “Endgame”

This is a fantasy trap that has actually reversed itself within the past five years. There was a time – not all that long ago – that every fantasy advisor would encourage owners to “wait out your opponents” and “save your money for the end of the draft.”

The basic spirit of that advice is still valid: you do not want to overpay for players at the beginning of your draft and it is important to have enough money left in the later rounds to grab a few bargains.

But the advice was repeated so loudly – and so often – that now nearly everyone plays a waiting game. Many owners – thinking they’re doing the right thing – let several good values pass them by in the early portion of their draft, waiting for some “bargains” that never materialize.

Don’t get me wrong – in many cases there are bargains to be had in the “endgame” portion of a draft. But those bargains – a top rookie catcher for $1, for example – are much different than an early-round bargain like a proven, All-Star 1st baseman for $10 below his estimated dollar value. Don’t pass up on any bargain – as long as that bargain fits into your strategic plan – hoping for a better bargain later. There is NO guarantee that other bargains will materialize…or be as good as the one sitting in front of you.

In order to be successful in this game you must have the courage – and the vision – to “buck the trend”. And you must also be conscious of everything that is going on around you. Just like in the stock market, the time to buy is when prices are low…and the time to pass is when prices are high.

Make sure you have worked out reasonable estimates for all of the top players available in your draft. DO THE MATH…the time you spend will be well worth it. If – according to your calculations (which must take into account “draft inflation”) David Ortiz is going for $5 too much…let him go. If, though, Oritz is available for $7 or $8 less than you had expected – and he fits into your strategic plan – then by all means grab him.

Remember – you NEVER want to leave a draft with points left over. Too many owners save so much money for the “endgame bargains” that they wind up with as much as $10 or $15 left over…and that is inexcusable.

Trap #6 – Hometown Stars and Postseason Heroes

Another classic fantasy trap involves overpaying for last year’s postseason heroes…and current hometown favorites.

The beauty of baseball’s postseason is that its global stage creates new stars each fall. Problem is… not all of those “stars” turn out to be worthwhile fantasy investments.

While it’s true that the last “meaningful” baseball you saw happened last fall, that doesn’t mean you need to pay a penny more for any of the players on the field during the Fall Classic. In fact – if anything – you should be skeptical. (See Cabrera, Francisco.)

That’s because novice owners almost always fall in love with the players who were all over SportsCenter – and on the cover of Sports Illustrated – last fall. “Gosh,” the novice owner thinks, “If he’s that valuable to the league champs, imagine what he’ll do for my team.”

Smart owners recognize this as a trap and will act accordingly. It might be a good idea to toss out the name of a postseason hero early in your draft just to see if anyone will take the bait and spend an extra $5 to get last fall’s Glamour Boy.

The other half of this common fantasy trap is also an obvious one. Hometown stars typically go for a few dollars more than they should, just because everyone is so familiar with them.

And, hey, if your goal as a rotisserie owner is to have a few of the local nine on your squad so you can cheer them on when you head out to the park…more power to you. Just don’t plan on having any Yoo-Hoo baths in the near future.

Just like the postseason heroes, it may be a good idea to throw out the name of a local star early in your auction and see if anyone falls into this trap. If so, you’ll have squeezed a few extra dollars out of a competitor’s budget that might come back to haunt him later on.

A word of caution: The “hometown hero” effect can also work in reverse. For those teams whose fans are unhappy with their team’s management, the net result might be that hometown players actually go for LESS than full value. This is easy to spot, of course. As long as you know how your fellow owners feel about their hometown team, you should be able to guess how they’ll bid on their “heroes” during your draft.

Trap #7 – Assuming Too Much Risk

Risk assessment might sound like something only insurance agents need to worry about, but it’s an important concept for rotisserie owners to grasp as well.

For rotisserie players, there are many types of risk that you need to be aware of when selecting a player. For example, those of you who play in NL-only league certainly run the risk of seeing your $40 outfielder traded to the American League in July.

Another type of risk you must concern yourself with – and is the most measurable of all the risks in the game – is the risk of injury.

It might be reassuring to some fans to read all the spring training “puff pieces” on the ace pitcher’s surgically repaired elbow. But those stories will do nothing for your team if you spend big bucks on this player only to find out that he’ll wind up on the DL for the season.

Everyone knows that injuries are a factor in rotisserie baseball. What you must do – as a successful owner – is measure the risk involved with each player you draft. Are you loading up with too many injury-prone pitchers? Do you have more than one outfielder that missed more than 35 games last year? You MUST ask yourself these questions as you prepare for your draft…as well as during your draft. If you forget to evaluate your risk you might wind up with way too many “If’s” on your roster for a championship run.

Injuries – and trades to different leagues – are not the only risk factor that must be considered. A commonly overlooked risk factor is the “Weak 2nd half” effect. Be sure you have confidence in each player you plan to select who had a less than stellar second half to the previous season. And – by all means – take caution to avoid having more than two or three of these “If’s” on your squad.

One more risk factor to account for: Starting pitchers who might kill your entire staff. Has this happened to you before: You spend an entire draft putting together a pitching staff that is rock-solid. You have low-ERA and low-WHIP starters who should get you plenty of wins and your relievers are all top-notch. But just before you finish your draft you pick up one last pitcher whom you figure “can’t be all that bad.” (Can you say “Ken Hill?”)

Before you know it the season is underway and that “top-notch” pitching staff is being murdered by one or two horrible starting pitchers. Your ERA and WHIP are climbing higher and higher and soon you’ll need to burn a free agent signing in order to right the ship.

All of that could have been avoided with proper preparation. Make a list of “Torpedo Pitchers” who will kill your pitching stats and take that list to your draft. If you find yourself about to bid on any pitchers on the list, you should immediately leave the room and return only when the bidding on that player has finished. Trust me…it’s the only way.