Five Pitchers Who Will Surprise in 2007

Now that the exhibition schedule is about to begin, draft prep kicks into high gear for fantasy owners everywhere.

Years ago, fantasy (or rotisserie) drafts were much easier. If you did your homework, you'd have a significant advantage over the other owners in your league. And it was easy to come away from Draft Day with a couple of legitimate "sleepers."

But those days are gone. Now most leagues are loaded with laptop-toting owners who have instant access to expert opinions and analysis. So even if you do put in the work ahead of the draft, you're likely just staying even with the competition...not getting ahead.

And forget about sleepers -- those don't exist anymore. Everyone knows the names of all the best prospects...and they have cheat sheets loaded with lists of darkhorse candidates to pick up saves later in the season.

Obviously, the game has changed. But the search for Draft Day bargains goes on.

So today I'll give you a few. No -- these aren't sleepers...trust me, you've heard of all of these guys before.

Instead, your best bet these days is to look for good "scrap heap" players who have the potential to deliver surprisingly good numbers. But at the same time, these players have to have been bad enough in the recent past to scare everyone else away...and the price ($1 or $2 in auction leagues) has to be right, so you can easily unload one of these players who doesn't pan out.

Today we'll focus on pitchers -- here's a quick list of seven "scrap heap" pitchers who will surprise you in 2007...

1. Tim Wakefield, Boston -- Wakefield has so many things working against him. First, he's now 40 years old (he'll turn 41 in August) and he battled injuries during a disappointing 2006 season. Most owners will be scared away by Wakefield's 4.63 ERA and 1.33 ratio in 2006...but take a look at Wakefield's splits from last season. Before the All-Star break, Wakefield was 7-8 with a 4.05 ERA...and opponents hit .233 against the knuckleballer. But after the break -- when Wakefield was pitching in pain -- he went 0-3 with a 7.40 ERA...and opponents hit .314 against him. It's not a sure thing that Wakefield will rebound in 2007 (but then again, we are talking about "scrap heap" pitchers, aren't we?) but given his history -- he won 16 games just two years ago -- and the strong Red Sox offense, a 15-win season is not out of the question.

2. Zack Greinke, Kansas City -- Let's be clear about this: I don't see any scenario where Zack Greinke wins 15 games in 2007. But I can envision a scenario where the talented right-hander overcomes last year's struggles to rejoin the Kansas City rotation and get his career back on track. In order to take that first step, it appears Greinke will need to beat out Brian Bannister this spring. A look at Greinke's Double-A numbers for 2006 show that he actually pitched well, but fell victim to some bad luck. There's no question he'll be available at a very low price this year -- and remember, he's still only 23 years old. Throwing that $1 or $2 at Greinke late in the draft could prove to be a steal; and if he disappears again, well, that middle reliever you'd have gotten will still be there on the waiver wire.

3. Jaret Wright, Baltimore -- Was 2004 really that long ago? Because it was in 2004 that Jaret Wright posted a 15-8 record and a 3.28 ERA while pitching for Leo Mazzone and the Atlanta Braves. Wright heads to Baltimore this season for a reunion with Mazzone, and it will be interesting to see if the two of them can get Wright straightened out. If you're looking for a positive in Wright's 2006 numbers, he was 5-5 with a 4.99 ERA in 70 1/3 innings of work at Yankee Stadium. But away from the Bronx, Wright was 6-2 with a 3.99 ERA in 70 innings pitched. The same thing happened in 2005, as well: Wright was 2-3 with a 7.86 ERA in seven Yankee Stadium starts, but 3-2 with a 3.99 ERA on the road. Is it possible that leaving Yankee Stadium and reuniting with Mazzone will mean another 15-win, sub-4.00 ERA season? It's certainly possible...

4. Jon Lieber, Philadelphia -- Dear Jon...I don't know any easy way to say this, but let's face it -- this just isn't working out. Don't worry, though, it's not you...it's us. You see, we should have never brought a flyball pitcher like you to Philadelphia to pitch in this bandbox of a ballpark. I really wish it hadn't come to this, since you've still got a lot going for you -- and I know you'll make some team happy later this season in your free agent year. Best of luck. Sincerely, The Philadelphia Phillies. Seriously...I have no idea where Lieber will wind up before the season is over, but it seems likely he'll be traded somewhere. I say it's worth a small risk to stash him away at the bottom of your roster and see what happens. The upside, as we all know, is something approaching a 20-win season.

5. Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs -- I don't know if Wood qualifies as a guy you'd be able to get for $1, especially if he looks good in spring training. I realize I may be the only person in the world who feels this way -- and I have absolutely zero evidence to back this up -- but I think Wood gets 30 saves this season and launches a second career as the Cubs' closer. Of course, I could be wrong and he could spend the entire season on the disabled list. But if he stays away from those slippery hot tubs, he just might get back on track.