Tuesday, March 20, 2007

What Do I Know, Anyway?

About three weeks ago -- in this very blog -- I offered up a list of 5 pitchers I felt could surprise in 2007.

(If you'd like to see for yourself, here's the link -- http://trustyourstuff.blogspot.com/2007/02/five-pitchers-who-will-surprise-in-2007.html)

Today let's take a look back at that list and see how each of those pitchers is progressing so far this spring...

1. Tim Wakefield was my first choice, and he's penciled in nicely as the 5th starter for what figures to be a solid Red Sox rotation. Wakefield has been healthy so far this spring and has posted a 5.00 ERA in three starts. A little bothersome is the fact that Wakefield has allowed 15 hits in nine innings of work. But, hey, it's spring training...he's just working on a few things, right? I stand by my statement that 15 wins is not out of the question.

2. Zack Greinke of the Royals was my next selection, as I figure he could slide under the radar on draft day or be discounted in some way due to his off-field struggles in 2006. But Greinke has looked strong so far this spring, leading the Royals with 14 innings pitched and 14 strikeouts (against just one walk.) There's no guarantee that Greinke will end up in the rotation, but his 3.86 spring training ERA doesn't hurt -- I also stand by my statement that Greinke will be a late-round steal.

3. Next up was Jaret Wright of the Orioles, who had struggled getting his work in this spring before pitching four innings against the Mets (allowing two earned runs) earlier tonight. It's clear that the Orioles have been cautious with Wright, and I still feel that his reunion with Leo Mazzone could be a successful one. I will say, though, that after seeing Wright throw this spring I no longer see a 15-win, sub-4.00 ERA as a realistic possibility.

4. Jon Lieber of the Phillies was my fourth choice, although at the time I felt it was likely that Lieber would be traded at some point this season...and I still feel that's the case. In fact, I think it's more likely now than ever -- Lieber has pitched well this spring (one earned run in six innings) and the Phillies are beginning to talk as though he might beat out Adam Eaton for the fifth starter's job. Don't buy into that, though -- it's simply Pat Gillick building up Lieber's trade value before the inevitable deal.

5. Can I have a mulligan for my last pick? I selected Kerry Wood of the Cubs and said that he'd notch 30 saves this season. Now it looks as though Wood will open the year on the disabled list (hard to believe, isn't it?) and I'm stuck with what looks like a ridiculous prediction. Don't worry, though -- if somehow Wood does save 30 games I'll pretend I stood by my prediction all along...

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